A national-level public sector organisation responsible for agricultural planning and climate resilience commissioned this project to better understand how climate variability is affecting coffee production across Colombia. Coffee remains one of the country’s most economically and socially significant export crops, supporting hundreds of thousands of smallholder farmers and contributing substantially to rural employment.
Growing evidence of rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, and increased climate volatility prompted the need for a spatially detailed risk assessment. The organisation required robust, data-driven insights to inform long-term policy, subsidy allocation, and agricultural adaptation strategies.
The core study area centred on the Eje Cafetero, Colombia’s traditional coffee belt, located between 1,000 and 2,200 metres above sea level within the Andean mountain ranges. These elevations have historically provided optimal growing conditions for Arabica coffee, particularly stable temperature ranges between 18°C and 23°C.
Additional vulnerability modelling was conducted in Antioquia and Tolima, regions experiencing agricultural expansion alongside increasing climate variability. Particular attention was given to steep-slope plantations vulnerable to soil erosion and extreme rainfall events.
The project applied an integrated geospatial methodology combining:
Satellite-based land use classification
Digital elevation modelling
Historical climate analysis
Future climate scenario modelling
High-resolution satellite imagery was used to map plantation density and land use change over a 15-year period. A 30-metre resolution digital elevation model allowed precise identification of altitude-based suitability bands.
Thirty-five years of historical climate data from meteorological stations and global reanalysis datasets were analysed to quantify:
Temperature increases in lower-elevation coffee zones
Variability in seasonal rainfall patterns
Frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events
Climate projections to 2050 were incorporated using mid-range emissions scenarios to assess how suitable coffee-growing zones may shift geographically.
In addition to environmental modelling, a socioeconomic vulnerability assessment was undertaken. This included analysis of:
Farm size distribution, with a majority of farms under 5 hectares
Access to irrigation and water storage infrastructure
Dependence on single-crop income
Proximity to processing centres and export logistics
Combining climatic exposure with adaptive capacity indicators allowed identification of high-risk livelihood clusters where environmental stress coincided with limited resilience.
The assessment revealed that lower-elevation coffee plantations are increasingly vulnerable to rising temperatures. Optimal growing conditions are gradually shifting upslope, potentially reducing the long-term viability of certain traditional cultivation areas.
Increased rainfall variability and prolonged dry spells were linked to yield instability and greater susceptibility to pests and plant disease. Regions previously characterised by stable growing conditions are now facing greater interannual uncertainty.
The analysis also identified potential future cultivation zones at higher elevations. However, these areas may present challenges related to infrastructure, accessibility, and environmental conservation.
The findings provided a spatial evidence base for prioritising adaptation measures. These included:
Promotion of shade-grown coffee systems to moderate temperature stress
Investment in improved irrigation and water retention systems
Support for climate-resilient coffee varietal development
Incentives for crop diversification in high-risk zones
The project also contributed to improved land-use planning by identifying zones where coffee expansion may be viable in the future while ensuring environmental safeguards are maintained.
By integrating plantation mapping with long-term climate analysis, the project strengthened the public sector organisation’s capacity to anticipate environmental shifts rather than respond reactively.
The resulting climate suitability atlas, vulnerability maps, and scenario modelling framework now support evidence-based decision-making aimed at maintaining yield stability, protecting farmer livelihoods, and sustaining Colombia’s global competitiveness in coffee production under changing climatic conditions.